On February 27th, according to foreign media Tom's Hardware, in recent years, due to US sanctions, Chinese companies have been restricted from obtaining advanced process nodes and manufacturing equipment. The Chinese semiconductor industry has rapidly shifted towards the development of mature process chips to meet domestic technological needs. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the mature process chip production capacity of Chinese wafer fabs will account for 28% of the global market, and will increase to 39% by 2027.
Although mature process nodes (usually above 20nm) are mainly used in consumer electronics, automobiles, home appliances, and other fields, they also bring important revenue and profits to chip manufacturers and provide funding for research and development departments. With the rise of mature process chip manufacturers in China, mature process chip manufacturers in the United States and Europe are facing huge challenges.
According to industry observers cited in the report, it is expected that in the future, the global mature process chip manufacturing industry will experience a "shock to China's mature process chip production capacity," which will put pressure on some European and American companies. The main reason for the impact is the rapid growth of production capacity and price advantage of Chinese wafer fabs, which makes it difficult for European and American companies to compete with them. A sales executive from a German chip manufacturer stated that mainstream 6-inch silicon carbide (SiC) wafers, previously sold by global leader Wolfspeed for $1500, are now priced at only $500 at Guangzhou Summit Crystal Semiconductor. This huge price difference makes it difficult for European and American companies to maintain market share.
Wolfspeed, once a leader in silicon carbide wafers, has seen its stock price drop by 96% over the past three years and has laid off 20% of its employees; Microchip, a major American microcontroller (MCU) company, experienced a 41.9% drop in revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 (Q4 2024) ending December 31, 2024, and announced plans to close some factories and lay off employees this year; American chip giant Anson's GAAP net profit for the fiscal year 2024 decreased by 32.5% year-on-year, and announced about 2400 global layoffs for the fiscal year 2025. The above manufacturers are all mature process chip manufacturers. Although not all performance declines and layoffs can be attributed to the rise of Chinese manufacturers, the US government has publicly stated that the rapid development of mature processes in China has had an impact on the US semiconductor industry.
It is worth noting that mature process chip manufacturers in Europe are also facing declining performance and layoffs. In February of this year, MCU giant STMicroelectronics (ST) also saw a year-on-year decline of 23.2% in revenue for 2024, with a sharp drop of 63.0% in net profit. At the same time, it announced the temporary closure of multiple wafer fabs and plans to lay off about 3000 employees during this fiscal year; European automotive chip giant NXP also announced in early February that it would lay off about 5% of its global workforce due to declining demand for automotive and industrial chips, as well as the Trump administration's plan to impose tariffs, which could affect approximately 1700 employees.
According to market research and research firm IDC, with the promotion of localization policies in China, Chinese companies will be more proactive in expanding production in the future than their global counterparts. As China continues to expand its mature manufacturing processes, there are predictions that the mature chip market will experience oversupply in the future. The new battlefield of the chip war between the United States and China has expanded from advanced processes to mature processes, and it is difficult to predict what impact it will have on both countries and chip manufacturers. But many manufacturers' profits disappear due to the pursuit of maintaining market share, which means that this mature chip battle will not show mercy to any party.
The potential impact of this mature process chip war is first and foremost the impact of price wars. Chinese chip manufacturers may seize market share through price advantages, which will also force European and American companies to lower prices and compress profit margins. This situation has led to a decline in profits for many European and American companies, and some European and American companies may find it difficult to withstand competitive pressure, ultimately forcing them to restructure and exit the market. In addition, a decrease in profits will also force some to reduce research and development investment, slowing down innovation.
It should be pointed out that European and American governments are also concerned that the market may become overly dependent on mature Chinese process chips in the future, which could expose other countries to supply chain risks, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions, exacerbating this concern.
On December 23, 2024, the Biden administration announced on the White House website that it had requested the Office of the United States Trade Representative to initiate a Section 301 investigation to examine China's goal of dominating basic semiconductors (also known as traditional or mature process chips) and its impact on the US economy. At the same time, the US government has provided over a billion dollars in subsidies to mature process wafer foundries such as GlobalFoundries and Texas Instruments through the Chip and Science Act to support them in expanding their mature process chip production capacity in the United States.
On January 16, 2025, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that for a period of time, the Biden administration in the United States has provided significant subsidies to the chip industry, giving American companies an unfair competitive advantage and allowing them to export mature process chip products to China at low prices, which has harmed the legitimate rights and interests of China's domestic industry. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce will initiate an investigation in accordance with the law.
浙公网安备 33068102000811号