Semiconductor market forecast of one trillion US dollars

According to a report by Yole Group analysts, the market size is expected to exceed $670 billion by 2024, an increase of $100 billion year-on-year from 2023. And this is just the beginning, driven by the prosperity of generative artificial intelligence, strong growth is expected in the coming years.

Pierre Cambou, Chief Analyst at Yole Group, stated that a new growth cycle is expected to continue over the next 3 to 4 years, primarily driven by demand from server, automotive, computing, and industrial segments. These factors will drive the semiconductor device industry to achieve a market size of $1 trillion by 2030.

In the latest market and technology report "Overview of the Semiconductor Device Industry in the First Half of 2025", Yole Group analyzed each semiconductor segment market and emphasized that the growth rate of server and automotive applications exceeded 10%. Especially servers will achieve strong growth, with a market value of $390 billion by 2030. Although the growth rate of the automotive industry is higher than that of the server market, its total value will reach 112 billion US dollars.

Yole Group's analysts also emphasized the positive role of the computing market in the next five years, predicting that by 2030, the growth rate of the computing market will reach 6%, reaching $150 billion.

From a component perspective, DRAM, NAND, and processors will drive the development of the semiconductor device industry, maintaining a stable growth rate of 7-8% by 2030.

Nvidia, a fabless semiconductor company, is currently leading the industry with semiconductor equipment revenue of $96 billion by 2024. Following closely behind is Taiwan's open wafer foundry TSMC, with a wafer foundry revenue of $87 billion in the same year. Samsung, headquartered in South Korea and mainly IDM, ranks third with a revenue of $83 billion in 2024. Intel, also an IDM, ranks fourth with a revenue of $52 billion in 2024. These four largest companies together account for nearly one-third of the entire semiconductor industry, covering all business models.

The semiconductor industry in 2024,The semiconductor industry is still concentrated in key regions, including the United States, Taiwan, China, South Korea, Japan, Europe and Chinese Mainland. American companies dominate with a market share of 56%, which drops to 40% if only considering value-added contributions. With the support of Taiwan OEM, the rise of NVIDIA and other fabless factory models has consolidated the position of the United States, while Chinese Mainland continues to grow as the largest market for semiconductor equipment. However, local Chinese companies still only account for 5% of the industry.

Semiconductor device revenue rebounded strongly in 2024, reaching $672 billion, and is expected to grow another 16% in 2025, reaching $777 billion. The market structure divided by device types remains stable, with logic and processors accounting for 40% -45%, volatile memory accounting for 20% -30%, and power, analog, and discrete devices accounting for 17% -23%. Optoelectronics and sensors account for 12% -14%.

The new growth cycle is expected to continue until 2027-2028, at which point there may be a potential decline. By 2030, we expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8%.

From a technical perspective, processors and logic devices will account for 45% of revenue in 2024, followed by memory (25%), power and analog (24%), and optoelectronics and sensors (15%). Memory devices, especially DRAM and NAND, are expected to grow significantly, with DRAM reaching $154 billion and NAND reaching $118 billion by 2030.